One of the most respected journalists in Canada, Lloyd Robertson spent decades as the chief anchor of CTV's national evening newscast before his retirement in 2011. After covering many elections throughout his career, Robertson understands why the current federal race is shaping up to be one of the country's most important in decades. Robertson recently sat down with Village Media's Scott Sexsmith to share his insights on the campaign. You can read their full conversation below.
Have you ever witnessed a federal election where the stakes seem so high?
How many times has that phrase “this is the most important election in our history” been used over the years? You can’t count them. It was most recently used for the election in Ontario. Well, this time we can take it seriously. I compare this election to the 1988 vote with Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney seeking a second term in office for a majority government and essentially it was a referendum on free trade. In the TV debates that year, Liberal leader John Turner was judged to have won as he strongly opposed free trade and his numbers jumped and took him into a lead. But it didn't hold and Brian Mulroney stormed back and won another majority government. Free trade was truly launched, backed by a majority of Canadians.
The Liberals had a very effective campaign ad that year that showed the border being wiped away slowly right across the country from west to east and then back east to west. In his earlier bullish form, that’s exactly what Trump said he would like to do. He feels it should never have been there in the first place.
So with our biggest trading partner, our best friend, threatening our economic existence and perhaps even our sovereignty, this election can certainly be judged most important.
What will you be watching for as the election campaign continues to unfold?
I think this election will centre on leadership, ultimately. That is: Who is best suited to take on Donald Trump among all of the party leaders. And that will boil down, of course, to Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre.
Carney brings impressive credentials to the job: Governor of the Bank of Canada, Governor of the Bank of England. He was the one who warned the Brits to be careful of Brexit, that they would regret it. He had a slow start to the campaign. His acceptance speech at the convention was solid with content, but it was flat and he had a dull delivery. However, one week later, when he was on the stump after the election call, he looked like he was a real politician. He looked like he had taken a course in Politics 101 Communications and suddenly had become a practicing, full-time politician like his opponent Pierre Poilievre.
It will be tough for Carney, though, because Pierre Poilievre is an experienced political athlete. He is fast on his feet and he seems to be making an effective shift these days from attack dog to a more prime ministerial tone. And that is bound to help him with his personal approval ratings, which have been too low for a party leader who is running to be PM. He is also drawing huge crowds as he adjusts his message to cost of living, housing and crime concerns — while all the while promising to deal effectively with Donald Trump.
Let’s expand a bit on those other concerns. Apart from Trump, what are the key issues on voters’ minds?
Well, affordability seems at the top of everyone’s list. The Conservatives will eliminate the GST on homes up to $1.3 million and will work to free up land more quickly and slash red tape. The Liberals promise to build 500,000 new homes a year and would cut the GST for first time buyers. With cost of living hikes a continuing concern, the Liberals promise to cut the middle class tax rate and provide small business relief. Conservatives would cut the sales tax on Canadian-made vehicles and provide other tax relief. With health care on the minds of so many, the NDP continues to stand firmly behind universal health care.
These are all just promises, of course, and there are many more but we can expect affordability and cost of living concerns to be with us for a while.
How closely do you watch the latest polling numbers?
Polls have to be regarded as a snapshot at a point in time and they've become really interesting. Conservatives are closing the gap with the Liberals, down now to the five-point range, as Trump eases up on his constant Canada-bashing and people's attention shifts to the other concerns we mentioned. As one who's been around for many campaigns, I have to wonder whether crowd sizes aren't telling us more than the polling at this point. It's a fact, though, that the respectable pollsters have never been that far off in Canadian campaigns
Speaking of polls, it’s shaping up to be a rough election for the third parties.
This is going to be a hard election for the third party leaders, including the NDP and the Greens. Jagmeet Singh can say he's had a good couple of years, that he pushed the Liberals into some forms of dental care and pharmacare. He's not getting any credit at all for that. In fact, his numbers in recent polling are way down. The progressive left is probably going to vote for the Liberals because they want to be sure they vote for someone who can beat Pierre Poilievre, and they want to give that vote to Mark Carney because he's in the best position to do that.
As for the Greens, they have a totally committed core of people, but it isn't enough to get them anywhere. They will just be also-rans.
What do you think will happen to these third parties after the election?
It looks really tough for the NDP. They could end up being reduced to a corporal's guard in the House of Commons. Many of their stalwart veteran candidates — like Charlie Angus, for example — are not running again, so that will hurt them. I know they're trying very hard with their television ads to get out there and say: ‘We are the ones who care about the people. The others only care about the billionaires.’ But that won't have an impact because this campaign is so dominated by the Trump tariff fight. Nothing will stop the bulldozer of the Trump tariffs and the perceived threats to Canada's national sovereignty.
The leaders’ debates are this week. How much of an impact will they have?
The live TV debates in French and English are always a high mark in the last two weeks. Both main parties have new leaders this time to make it doubly interesting. Television is an intensely personal medium so leaders have to be concerned with how they present themselves as well as what they say.
Conservative Pierre Polievre will try to break through the cool facade of the Liberal's Mark Carney while being prime ministerial at the same time. He may try to rattle him as Brian Mulroney did with John Turner during their first debate in 1984 in a tense exchange over patronage appointments, which certainly made a difference as the one time a debate had a measurable impact on the election outcome as Mulroney swept to a thumping majority Conservative government.
Carney may boast about his one successful phone call with Donald Trump, which the American President referred to as “productive” and he has not mentioned Canada as the 51st state since, nor referred to the Canadian Prime Minister as “Governor.” Carney will make the point that he knows how to handle a crisis and is the right man for the times. Polievre and the other leaders can be expected to hammer at Carney for his time as an executive at Brookfield Asset Management and that company’s questionable use of tax havens. They will try to scar his much-vaunted pristine moral and ethical reputation.
Will it all matter once the debate is over? Only rarely does a debate make a difference. We’ll all be watching closely afterwards to see whether it does this time.
It’s an obvious question, Lloyd, but why is it so important for Canadians to exercise their right to vote on April 28?
Over these last weeks we have been saying how proud we are of this country and how much we love it in the face of bullying threats. Voting day will be the time to show up to vote for the kind of leadership you want and allow your voice to be heard in what could be the most consequential election in Canada’s history.