Voters have shifted dramatically toward supporting the federal Liberals in the upcoming election, a series of reader polls show.
An absolute majority of readers say they now plan to vote Liberal. As recently as the new year, readers preferred the Conservatives by a strong margin.
The results are broadly in line with more formal polls, which show the same trend since U.S. president Donald Trump began threatening Canada with tariffs and annexation, and Mark Carney became prime minister:
Where are those voters coming from?
The most dramatic and obvious shift is Green and NDP support to the Liberals — fully three-quarters of those who said they would vote NDP at the new year now say they will vote Liberal.
There is also a smaller shift by a segment of Conservatives to the Liberals, and from the PPC to the Conservatives.
(It would be an irony if, as part of a drive to resist U.S. annexation, Canada shifted to a U.S.-style two-party system.)
Conservatives and Liberals both predict some form of victory for their side. PPC supporters predict a Conservative victory in a similar way to Conservatives.
A clear majority of NDP voters predict a Liberal government,
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has spent years talking about affordability issues, especially with regard to real estate. Carney has tried to define himself as the candidate best able to stand up to Trump.
This has led to a more or less accepted wisdom about the defining issue of the election: if it's affordability, that favours the Liberals; if it's the U.S., that favours the Liberals.
Our poll more or less bears this out:
Women are much more likely to vote Liberal than men, though a plurality of men are likely to vote Liberal:
Older and younger voters are more likely to vote Liberal. The highest Conservative support is with those 30 to 60:
Party support is fairly consistent between income blocks, other than the highest-income group, who are more likely to vote Conservative.