Online polls this week showed that overwhelming majorities of Liberal and Conservative voters are completely committed to their voting intentions. Greens and New Democrats, however, are not, with about one in five saying they are only somewhat sure how they will vote.
In general, several of our online polls seem to suggest that the Liberals potentially have more room to grow, and the Conservatives, despite their steady base, probably don't.
To some extent, voter certainty increases by income bracket:
But is identical between men and women:
Other than people under 30, it's quite consistent between age brackets:
There is a substantial group of voters who had little time for Justin Trudeau earlier this year, but are much more open to Mark Carney.
Strong majorities of people who were indifferent or somewhat unfavourable to Trudeau have a generally positive view of Carney (though the people with a very unfavourable view of Trudeau seem to be mostly out of reach for Carney as well).
The number of voters with negative views of Pierre Poilievre has steadily grown, while those with a positive view has stayed comparatively stable. This roughly tracks with a recent Angus Reid poll.